Washington Post - Headlines 1 to 28 Feb 2022

 

Amid the roar of nationalism, a few antiwar voices in China emerge over Ukraine crisis

Poems, letters and an online petition call for peace even as China's official stance seeks to bolster Russia in its battle against the West.

By Lily KuoFebruary 28, 2022

In Japan and across Asia, an outpouring of support for Ukraine

In Japan and throughout Asia, people have come out in support for Ukrainians in rallying against the Russian invasion, through protests and donations.

By Michelle Ye Hee Lee,  Julia Mio Inuma and Shibani MahtaniFebruary 28, 2022

Myanmar’s military has spent the year since the coup searching for international legitimacy. It has not found it.

With even the other nations of Southeast Asia turning away from it, Myanmar only has Russia left as an ally and source of weapons.

By Shibani MahtaniFebruary 28, 2022

North Korea says it held test for spy satellite launch

Pyongyang said Sunday’s test involved cameras for a potential reconnaissance satellite that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has identified as a priority.

By Min Joo KimFebruary 27, 2022

NATIONAL SECURITY

China struggles to navigate its partnership with Russia following Ukraine invasion

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, China finds itself in a deepening geopolitical quandary over a war that has few benefits for Beijing and is exposing the limits of the Sino-Russia partnership.

By Cate CadellFebruary 25, 2022

India avoids condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine and stays aloof on Western coalition

India juggles its close relations with Moscow against its new ties to Washington.

By Gerry ShihFebruary 25, 2022

Saga of the chained mother of eight continues to roil China, inspiring rare social activism

Under Xi, social activism had all been snuffed out but the case of the Xuzhou woman has inspired a wide public response.

By Lily Kuo and Lyric LiFebruary 25, 2022

China, seemingly surprised by sudden Ukraine incursion, denies backing Russian attacks

While Beijing urges calm, Chinese analysts blame the United States and Ukraine for provoking the Russian attack.

By Christian ShepherdFebruary 24, 2022

Japan cautiously moves toward stern response to Russia after years of trying to improve relations

As the leaders of the world’s largest economies gather to discuss a united response to Russia's assault on Ukraine, Japan — the lone Asian member of the Group of Seven nations — is cautiously coordinating with Western allies after years of trying to avoid antagonizing Russia.

By Michelle Ye Hee LeeFebruary 24, 2022

Hong Kong’s coronavirus surge leaves the most vulnerable without a place to isolate

As cases sweep through the cramped territory, denizens of tiny apartments search for places to quarantine and isolate as stipulated by law.

By Theodora YuFebruary 23, 2022

Photos show the covid-19 emergency in Hong Kong

New covid infections in Hong Kong have broken records daily, reaching more than 7,000 this week.

By Shibani Mahtani and Olivier LaurentFebruary 22, 2022

China keeps walking its tightrope between Russia and the West as tensions flare in Ukraine

China wants Russia’s backing in its own disputes with the United States, but noninterference in other nations' sovereignty is one of its core foreign policy principles.

By Lily KuoFebruary 22, 2022

South Koreans overwhelmingly want nuclear weapons to confront China and North Korea, poll finds

Even when the possible drawbacks of going nuclear are explained, including the withdrawal of U.S. troops, people remain firm in their desire to have the weapons.

By Michelle Ye Hee LeeFebruary 21, 2022

Olympics inflame deep rift between China and South Korea

Allegations of cultural appropriation and unfair officiating at the Beijing Winter Olympics have stoked anger among South Koreans toward China during an election campaign season.

By Min Joo Kim and Lily KuoFebruary 18, 2022

Eileen Gu is Beijing’s Olympic face, but can she find space in China’s increasingly nationalistic future?

While Chinese Americans think Gu shouldn’t have to pick a side, nationalists in China want to know where her allegiances lie.

By Christian ShepherdFebruary 18, 2022

ECONOMIC POLICY

World Bank unit is financing Chinese companies that appear to employ forced laborers, report says

An arm of the taxpayer-funded World Bank has provided nearly $500 million in financing to four Chinese companies that appear to have employed forced laborers in the country’s Xinjiang region, according to a new report.

By Jeanne WhalenFebruary 17, 2022

Malaysia, South Korea break daily coronavirus case records as Asia-Pacific region grapples with omicron

The surge comes weeks after similar ones in the United States, Canada and several countries in Europe, where cases — and covid restrictions — are now falling.

By Andrew JeongFebruary 17, 2022

An alleged Chinese interference plot stirs fears — and smears — ahead of Australian elections

The vague warning by Australia's intelligence chief of election meddling by a foreign power has been weaponized by the ruling party against the opposition ahead of elections.

By Michael E. Miller and Frances VinallFebruary 17, 2022

SCIENCE

The rocket part that will crash into the moon is probably from China, not SpaceX, NASA says

The Chinese rocket part probably launched into space seven years ago, NASA said, explaining that the agency identified the booster after analyzing the object’s orbits between 2016 and 2017.

By Timothy BellaFebruary 16, 2022

For two years, Hong Kong held off the pandemic. Then, everything fell apart.

A reliance on a "zero covid" strategy meant that Hong Kong's hospitals were unprepared when the virus finally burst into the country.

By Shibani Mahtani and Theodora YuFebruary 16, 2022

Suspension of Afghan Fulbright Program shatters dreams for 140 semifinalists now stuck under Taliban rule

Like thousands of Afghans aligned with the United States who remain under threat inside the country, many of the Fulbright applicants feel a sense of abandonment by the Biden administration.

By Sudarsan RaghavanFebruary 15, 2022

China’s new Olympic stars are affluent, chill and in it for the thrill

China's Olympic athletes were once overwhelmingly the product of hardscrabble backgrounds and sports academies. That is starting to change.

By Vic Chiang,  Christian Shepherd and Lyric LiFebruary 15, 2022

TODAY'S WORLDVIEW

How far is China willing to go to help Russia?

China is Putin’s best bet, and in the shadow of the escalating Ukraine crisis, the two nations have appeared to forge tighter bonds built on shared strategic interests — and enemies.

By Anthony FaiolaFebruary 15, 2022

China censors ‘Friends’ to remove references to Ross’s lesbian ex-wife — and orgasms

In the new streaming version of the popular show in China, Ross's ex-wife is no longer a lesbian, and multiple orgasms become gossiping.

By Lily KuoFebruary 14, 2022

With North Korea talks stalled, some wonder: What if we tried something different?

As the U.S.-North Korea diplomatic negotiations show no sign of resuming, some North Korea watchers are wondering: What if Trump's more personal approach panned out?

By Michelle Ye Hee LeeFebruary 14, 2022

For Chinese still trapped in the pandemic, the Olympics give a spark of pride

Emotions surrounding the Games in China run the gamut and include, for some, being put off by the glitzy display amid daily hardships.

By Eva Dou,  Lyric Li and Vic ChiangFebruary 11, 2022

Ukraine war highlights stakes of Chinese attack on Taiwan

Beijing’s threat to Taiwan will loom over Asia’s top security conference this weekend.

BY STUART LAU

June 7, 2022 10:03 pm

A Taiwan national flag flutters in front of the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei |
 Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

An authoritarian nuclear superpower invading a smaller but determined U.S.-armed neighbor is not the stuff of theoretical war games any more.

As defense ministers from around the world fly in to Singapore to attend Asia's top security conference this weekend, they will be acutely aware that the war in Ukraine has given an added intensity to discussions about Taiwan and a potential invasion by China.

In an event that would potentially offer the most senior direct contact between the U.S. and Chinese militaries under the administration of President Joe Biden, Defense Ministers Lloyd Austin and Wei Fenghe will attend the Shangri-La Dialogue that runs from Friday to Sunday.

It's unlikely either party will be outspoken given the escalating tensions over the self-governing democratic island that Beijing claims as its own. China has already fumed in protest at Biden's unexpectedly candid pledge last month to defend Taiwan. In Singapore, expect coded messages and Taiwan to be more of an elephant in the room.

"Ukraine led threat perceptions to rise all over Asia," said James Crabtree, executive director for the Singapore office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organizes the Shangri-La event. "Defense establishments suddenly thought geopolitical calamities previously thought highly unlikely were suddenly possible, with Taiwan merely being the most obvious potential flashpoint in a region riven with potential tensions."

Those "threat perceptions" after Russian President Vladimir Putin's onslaught against Ukraine have split into two broad categories for China. Beijing has to make both military calculations about taking on a country backed by Washington and also weigh up the global economic impact — on supply chains and its own exports — should China be hit by American, European and Japanese sanctions as Russia has been. The lesson from Ukraine for Chinese President Xi Jinping — on both counts — is that the risks are extremely high.

Hard crossing

China has considerable military superiority over Taiwan — just like Russia over Ukraine — but an amphibious assault on an island 100 miles away is no walkover. Backed by the U.S., Taiwan would be able to strike at vessels making the crossing and any landing against well dug-in troops could be hazardous for the untested People's Liberation Army. Xi will not want to suffer the huge casualties that Russia is taking in Ukraine.

Conversely, in the other camp, many Taiwanese strategists have been shocked by how rapid Russia's military buildup was, and how devastating the consequences can be.

For now, Taiwan's overall mood is one of careful examination. The island's top spymaster said last month that Beijing would be "more cautious" about its war plans, given Russia's poor performance in Ukraine. "Similarly Taiwan will learn how to advance ourselves," said Chen Ming-tong, chief of the National Security Bureau.

There's no doubting that events in Eastern Europe are at the forefront of planning in Taipei. Joseph Wu, Taiwan's foreign minister, said that the government "are taking the war in Ukraine into very serious internal discussions."

"One of the tactics that has been successful so far is the asymmetric capability. And that is something that we are learning from and we want to discuss further with the United States," Wu told NPR.

Top policymakers gathering in Singapore will be trying to gauge Beijing's thinking, however runic that may sound in Wei's remarks.

Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said that the government is "taking the war in Ukraine into very serious internal discussions." | Vladimir Simicek/AFP via Getty Images

Publicly China has repeatedly called for "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, but it also threatened to seize the island by force if necessary. There's no clear timeline about when that might happen — but U.S. officials prior to the Ukraine war speculated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next six to 10 years. Tensions have not been helped by Chinese fighters and bombers making repeated incursions into Taiwan's air defense zone.

President Xi has also laid out his plan unequivocally. In a manner not unlike Putin, when he explained his "special military operation" to remove "Nazis" in Ukraine, Xi told the Taiwanese public in a major speech in 2019 that "we do not renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and a tiny number of separatists and their separatist activities for 'Taiwan independence.' It does in no way target our compatriots in Taiwan."

Microchips and supply chains

Beijing is also increasingly hawkish about Taiwan's leading role in semiconductors. In an eyebrow-raising speech, a top Chinese economist this week openly called on Beijing to "seize" the island's leading microchip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

"In case the U.S. and the West impose destructive sanctions on China like those sanctions against Russia, we must recover Taiwan. Particularly in the reconstruction of the industrial chains and supply chains, we must seize TSMC — an enterprise that belongs to China — into China's hands," said Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a research group that is overseen by the National Development and Reform Commission. The speech was published on Chinese news portal Guancha.

The difficulty for China is, of course, that sanctions for an invasion could well be severe as the West has proved itself more united in the face of the Kremlin's aggression than many expected. China will have to assess whether the West will be less likely to sanction it because its supply chains are far more consequential than Russia's.

China's own economic model is, however, heavily dependent on selling goods to rich markets such as the U.S., Europe and Japan.

And they are — for now — deeply skeptical of Xi's direction.

The White House moved quickly to try and walk back Biden's commitment to defend Taiwan last month, but at least to Chinese ears the U.S. president had ventured beyond the "strategic ambiguity" that Washington normally attempts to maintain regarding Taiwan.

Elsewhere, Taiwan's military support is limited, even though the situation in Ukraine is hardening the stance in other countries. In April, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called on NATO — anchored in Atlantic security but increasingly eyeing China — to "ensure that democracies like Taiwan are able to defend themselves."

In Asia, Japan is seen as the strongest backer of Taiwan, with Tokyo's politicians being increasingly vocal about the security threats facing Taiwan.

Intriguingly, even Singapore itself, host of the Shangri-La summit, has conducted semi-covert joint training exercises with Taiwan.

Much now depends on Xi's appetite for ultra-high risk. Almost everyone will be parsing Chinese Defense Minister Wei's speech on Sunday for any signs of that.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-highlights-stakes-of-china-attack-on-taiwan/

.

• 

  FOREIGN POLICY

  China’s defense minister pushes back at U.S. over Taiwan

  By STUART LAU

China’s new vassal: Vladimir Putin

Xi Jinping now holds the better cards in steering the Moscow-Beijing relationship.

BY STUART LAU

June 6, 2022 4:00 am

China is making a big show of political solidarity with Russian President Vladimir Putin |
Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images

China can now enjoy turning the tables.

When Chairman Mao Zedong visited Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin in the winter of 1949, he was very much the junior supplicant. Stalin packed him off to wait for weeks in his snow-bound No. 2 dacha, 27 kilometers outside Moscow, where the humiliated and constipated Chinese leader grumbled about everything from the quality of the fish to his uncomfortable mattress.

When the two Communist leaders did get to business, Stalin bullied his way to a very favorable deal that put Mao on the hook to buy Russian arms and heavy machinery with a loan on which Beijing would have to pay interest.

Seven decades later, the power dynamics reveal a radical reset. Shortly before invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to the Winter Olympics in Beijing to proclaim the “no limits” friendship with China’s Xi Jinping, but there’s no doubting who the real superpower is in that duo these days. China’s $18-trillion economy is now 10 times mightier than Russia’s. Beijing will hold nearly all the good cards in setting the terms of any financial lifelines from big brother.

As Russia faces a sharply contracting economy under sanctions and an impending oil embargo from Europe, China is the obvious potential benefactor for Putin to turn toward.

Xi shares Putin’s hostility to the West and NATO, but that doesn’t mean he will be offering unalloyed charity. Xi’s overriding strategic concern is China’s prosperity and security, not saving Russia. Beijing is likely to buy at least some oil diverted from Europe, but only at a hefty discount from global benchmarks. China will only help Russia to the extent that it doesn’t attract sanctions and imperil its own ability to sell goods to rich countries in North America and the EU.

A very public partnership

Publicly, China is making a big show of political solidarity with Moscow. It has increased overall trade with Russia, essentially abandoned Ukraine, expanded financial transactions without the use of dollars or euros, and doubled down on future cooperation to develop military technology while carrying out joint exercises in the Pacific region.

Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, has acknowledged that his country’s future lies with China, saying: “Now that the West has taken a ‘dictator’s position,’ our economic ties with China will grow even faster.”

Xi himself also appears to be a strong admirer of Putin on a personal level. Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, calls this his “Russia complex.” (Since the war broke out, Xi has only spoken by phone with Putin, not his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy).

There are very serious limits to these “no limits” relations, however. For now, at least, China is stressing to Western nations that it is not selling weapons or plane parts to Russia. Beijing doesn’t want to fall victim to sanctions itself, so it sets boundaries to the relationship. Even more worryingly for Putin, China is also out to set a high price for support. Beijing, for example, wants to restrict Russia’s highly lucrative arms sales to India, China’s arch-foe across the Himalayas.

“In a reverse from the Cold War pattern, Russia will be the junior partner to a more powerful China. That will irritate Putin,” said Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

That second-fiddle role is not a scenario Putin would have envisioned when the Russian president decided to invade Ukraine in February, propelled by a desire to rebuild a bygone glory for his nation.

But all in all, he should have seen it coming. China is a country obsessed by correcting historical humiliations and regaining its position of global leadership. The time when the Soviet Union was ideologically — and economically — superior to Communist China is long gone. Huawei Technologies builds Russia’s 5G networks, while Russia requires Chinese cooperation on everything from aircraft parts to currency swaps. Importantly, it’s also not just the U.S. and Europe imposing sanctions on Moscow, but also three other major Asian economies: Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Kremlin-backed Russian International Affairs Council, doubts that Russia’s elites have much appetite to serve as China’s junior partner. But he sees few alternatives for Moscow. “Since the conflict began, Russia started needing China more than earlier because China remains in many ways the only game in town, with economic ties between Russia and the West curtailed and with sanctions imposed on Russia.”

Crude calculations

Perhaps the single biggest calculation for China is how far it will go to help Putin beat an impending EU embargo on Russian oil. This European ban will drill a significant hole in Russia’s budget unless other big buyers step in.

In deciding how much it will buy, Beijing has massive leverage over Moscow.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are already the two leading suppliers of oil to China. In May, seaborne imports of Russian crude to China reached a two-year high with 1.14 million barrels per day, up from 800,000 barrels per day in 2021, according to data from Vortexa Analytics shared with POLITICO.

Much of the explanation for this is pure hard-headed economics from the Chinese more than a show of political solidarity, however. International sanctions mean traders have been wary of handling Russian crude, creating a mini glut that sees Russia’s oil trading $20 to $30 cheaper than international benchmark prices.

Given that China imports more than 10 million barrels per day, there’s certainly room to buy more, especially when the economy restarts and lockdown measures are gradually removed in key cities like Shanghai. But Russian sales to the EU have been about 2.4 million bpd. Given China’s own security concerns about overdependence on individual suppliers, it would be highly unlikely for China to suddenly start buying all of Russia’s now-surplus oil.

Similarly, China holds the cards when it comes to gas. Just before he invaded Ukraine, Putin signed a deal with Xi agreeing to increase natural gas exports to 48 billion cubic meters per year in future, from a humble 4.1 billion cubic meters in 2020. Russia is also planning a new pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, which could see Russian gas exports to Europe more easily switched to China.

“The problem, however, is that China holds all the cards in the negotiations,” Nikos Tsafos, chief energy adviser to the Greek prime minister, wrote in a think tank report in May. “And like the first Power of Siberia line, China will drive a hard bargain. What is unknowable at this point is whether China is ready to make a deal. Russia is likely to offer very attractive terms — if nothing else, due to its desperation. But will China accept them? Will they be tempted by the price, or will they think twice about expanding their dependence on Russia at this moment?”

Watching the weapons

Russia’s need for an ally coincides with China’s growth in assertiveness. The more isolated Moscow becomes, the more it may have to help China further its geopolitical ambition.

For years, Chinese officials have been quietly lobbying their Russian counterparts to cut arms sales to India, which has had a sometimes bloody border dispute with Beijing.

Between 2017 and 2022, India was the largest arms export market for Russia, followed by China, according to statistics from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Fighting Indian soldiers armed with Russian equipment may not be fun for China, but it’s certainly a lucrative business for Moscow.

Before the war, “Russia was very stubborn and [would] say, ‘Oh, you’re not in a position, China, to dictate us our choices to whom we sell weapons. But I think that China will be in this position probably five years down the road,” said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Russia-China relations with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank.

India, for its part, is trying to keep an open relationship with Putin. New Delhi, like Beijing, is snapping up cheap oil, even though it’s also eager to maintain strong ties with the U.S.

“A Russia weakened by war and sanctions but not chaotic and unstable suits China’s long-term interests,” said Bobo Lo, a former deputy head of the Australian mission in Moscow who now works at the Lowy Institute. “Russia’s isolation will further push it into a position of a junior partner in the relationship, while increasing its economic and strategic dependency on China.”

Commanding position

Today’s power reversal would have looked highly peculiar to those singing “L’Internationale” in Moscow in the post-war era.

After all, the USSR and the People’s Republic were on difficult terms for decades, despite their supposed ideological proximity.

“In the 1950s, it absolutely was the case that the fact that China was the junior partner was very grating, because there was a view in Beijing that Moscow too often as a status quo power cared too much about its relations with the West at the expense of its relations with China,” said Joseph Torigian, author of “Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion,” a new book about Stalin and Mao. “When it was Stalin and Mao, Stalin was a teacher, he was the titan of the communist movement. When Stalin died, Mao looked down on Khrushchev, as someone who didn’t understand ideology. When Deng Xiaoping met Gorbachev, Deng by all accounts thought Gorbachev was an idiot.”

While Xi and Putin share a better personal rapport than their predecessors, they also have very different considerations for the future of their countries’ role in the world.

Xi’s full focus is on securing the presidency for a third time, armed with an appeal to make China — a market deeply embedded with the West — more prosperous, eventually overtaking the U.S. to become the world’s No 1 economy. Sanctions would wreck that playbook.

Putin, meanwhile, is in a tougher bind. He would be happy to take whatever he can from China given his country’s current distress — even if that means Russia is seen as a junior partner to China.

“The problem is that he sees the conflict in Ukraine as really central to his struggle to keep his regime,” Gabuev said. “There is so much emotional tunnel vision on the importance of the war in Ukraine and sticking it back to the Americans, particularly since the American military’s help, provision of weapons, sharing of sensitive intelligence data … helps to kill a lot of Russian soldiers.”

“Being in China’s pocket is kind of less feared, because the focus is really on fighting the U.S.,” he said. “If China provides the necessary resources — and at the same time doesn’t seem to interfere in Russia’s domestic affairs — that’s the price that he’s accepting to pay in order to continue his fight with the U.S.”

Victor Jack and America Hernandez contributed reporting.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-new-vassal-vladimir-putin/