Showing posts with label RFA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RFA. Show all posts

Thursday, 20 January 2022

Hong Kong university withdraws recognition, facilities from student union

 The Education University is the latest school to do so, amid a widening crackdown on dissent.

By Man Hin, Lau Ngoh Yin and Tung Syu Yuet
2022.01.20


Hong Kong university withdraws recognition, facilities from student unionThe Education University of Hong Kong is shown in a file photo.
File Photo

Another Hong Kong university has withdrawn recognition for its student union amid an ongoing clampdown on public speech, under a draconian national security law imposed on the city by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

In an open email to staff and students, the Education University of Hong Kong said the university hadn't "authorized" the union, and cited "governance issues" linked to recent elections to its committee.

The university's official website on Thursday continued to display a page titled "Support for Student Organizations," listing the Education University of Hong Kong Student Union as a body it supports.

"The Student Union was formally established in May 1995. In addition to providing various types of activities and benefits for students, it also participates in the formulation of policies and administrative matters of the school by recommending student representatives to attend school committee meetings," the page said.

But the email said the university would no longer allow the union to use its usual venues on campus, and would stop collecting membership fees on its behalf.

The student union's H.K.$9 million in funds will be handed over to the finance office "on a temporary basis," it said.

Meanwhile, the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), which derecognized its student union in 2021, called for all students to stand as potential representatives to university committees -- positions that were once elected via the union.

Media reports said that the University of Hong Kong (HKU), CUHK, City University, Polytechnic University, Lingnan University and Baptist University have all stopped collecting student union dues since the start of the current academic year.

A HKU student surnamed Lam said the lack of a student union was "stressful" for students.

"If the universities suppress student organizations in various ways, it will actually destroy any channels of communication between students [and management]," Lam said. "Lots of small, daily activities will be affected, or dwindle out entirely."

"I also think it's a great shame, because [Hong Kong's] universities each have their own history, and if the student unions are lost, a lot of newly enrolled students won't get any sense of that history," he said.

Applicants for student representative seats will be screened based on staff recommendation (40 percent), relevant extra-curricular experience (25 percent), personal statement (25 percent) and grades (10 percent), the CUHK notice said.

Representatives must be recommended by full-time faculty, with the university council having the final word on whether a nomination is valid, it said.

The CUHK Student Daily newspaper said the new process was being managed by the university's Student Affairs Office, with the selection of candidates entirely determined by non-elected bureaucrats.

It cited concerns that those appointed to the representative seats would be effectively used as clients of the university management when voting, as they were no longer accountable to the union.


'Promoting terrorism'

The move came as four former members of the HKU Student Union council were charged with "promoting terrorism" under the national security law, in connection with its motion in support of a man who stabbed a police officer.

Four former HKU students, including former student union president Kwok Wing-ho and council chief Cheung King-sang, have been charged with "advocating terrorism" under the national security law and were released on bail pending a further hearing on March 24.

On July 1, 2021, 50-year-old Leung Kin-fai stabbed himself to death after knifing a policeman outside the Sogo department store. The union passed a motion on July 7, 2021 saying it "appreciated [Leung's] sacrifice."

Union council members made public apologies and resigned from their posts after the incident, but Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam insisted publicly that police investigate them under the national security law.

Officials have warned that anyone visibly mourning or sympathizing with Leung's death could be breaking the national security law, and are treating the incident as a terrorist attack.

An HKU student surnamed Lam who attended the hearing told RFA that he felt "powerless" in the face of the current crackdown on dissent.

"I can see what is happening, but there's nothing I can do about it," Lam said.

Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie.

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Tuesday, 18 January 2022

Malaysian FM sees shift in China’s justification of sweeping South China Sea claims

Saifuddin Abdullah says Beijing now “speaks less of the ‘nine-dash line’ and more often of the ‘Four Sha’.”

2022.01.18
Malaysian FM sees shift in China’s justification of sweeping South China Sea claimsA file photo showing Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah speaking during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, China, Sept. 12, 2019.
 Reuters

China appears to be shifting from the so-called “nine-dash line” toward a new legal theory to support its expansive claims in the South China Sea, although analysts say its alternative is also problematic under international law.

In comments to reporters last week, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said Beijing now “speaks less of the ‘nine-dash line’ and more often of the ‘Four Sha’.” He said the shift toward has been witnessed by member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and “is even more serious” than the old claim.

“Four Sha,” or Four Sands Archipelagos, are the four island groups in the South China Sea that Beijing claims to hold “historical rights” to.  China calls them “Dongsha Qundao,” “Xisha Qundao,” “Zhongsha Qundao,” and “Nansha Qundao.” Internationally, they are known as Pratas Islands, Paracel Islands, the Macclesfield Bank area and Spratly Islands.

The concept they may be eclipsing, the nine-dash line, is a U-shaped line encircling most of the South China Sea that China has been using to demarcate its sovereignty over the sea.

An international tribunal in 2016 invalidated the line saying China has no legal basis for it. Although Beijing rejected the ruling, other nations have endorsed it.

“The nine-dash line has proven to be a really easy target for critics of China’s South China Sea claims,” Julian Ku, a professor at the Hofstra University School of Law in Long Island, New York State, said.

“It was also directly considered and rejected by the South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal in 2016.”

“China’s Four Sha theory was not directly considered by the tribunal ruling, although it would also be difficult to support,” Ku said, adding: “Still, it is a less dramatic claim and it is also not based solely on historical claims.”

Illustrative map of the apparent geographic extents of Dongsha Qundao, Xisha Qundao, Zhongsha Qundao, and Nansha Qundao, from which the PRC claims its maritime zones. Credit: U.S. State Department's report 'Limits in the Seas'
Illustrative map of the apparent geographic extents of Dongsha Qundao, Xisha Qundao, Zhongsha Qundao, and Nansha Qundao, from which the PRC claims its maritime zones. Credit: U.S. State Department's report 'Limits in the Seas'
‘Slowly emerging’

Bill Hayton, a journalist-turned-scholar who wrote an acclaimed book on the South China Sea, said the Four Sha theory has been “emerging slowly, with a boost after the arbitration tribunal ruling.”

“The Four-Sha is an attempt to develop an UNCLOS-like justification for control over the South China Sea with some sort of legal basis,” he said. UNCLOS is the acronym for the UN Convention of the Law on the Sea.

“But everyone else is still rejecting it,” Hayton added.

Each of the archipelagos in the Four Sha consists of a large number of scattered outlying features, most of which are submerged under water. Beijing insists that they are to be treated as whole units for purposes of sovereignty and maritime entitlements.

The Zhongsha Qundao, or Macclesfield Bank area, is actually entirely underwater, and not an archipelago, experts say.

Ku from the Hofstra University said although the first-known attempt by Chinese officials to advance Four Sha as a new legal theory was recorded at a closed-door meeting with U.S. State Department officials in 2017, “the Four Sha are not new to China’s claims in the South China Sea.”

The Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone of the People's Republic of China, adopted by China in 1992, declared the four island groups. They were also mentioned in a 2016 white paper issued by China disputing the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea arbitral process.

“These new Chinese legal justifications are no more lawful than China’s nine-dash line claim but it is more confusing and less simple to criticize,” Ku said.

A U.S. State Department report on China’s South China Sea claims that was published this month, ‘Limits in the Seas’, does not mention Four Sha concept. But it does analyze the People’s Republic of China (PRC) sovereignty claim over Dongsha, Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha. It concludes that China’s assertions of sovereignty are “unlawful.”


Change of approach?

The apparent shift from nine-dash line to Four Sha has caused concern among South China Sea claimants.

Malaysia is among the ASEAN nations’ whose territorial claims overlap with China’s in the South China Sea. The others are Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam. While Indonesia does not regard itself as party to the South China Sea dispute, Beijing does claim historic rights to areas overlapping Indonesia's exclusive economic zone.

In a response to a question posed by a reporter from BenarNews, a sister agency of RFA, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin told reporters last Thursday that “they (China) have changed from using mostly the nine-dash line narrative to the Four Sha. I can see some policy change in the way they approach the South China Sea.”

“It is yet to be seen whether the Four Sha (approach) is more aggressive or the nine-dash line (is) more aggressive,” Saifuddin said.

Ku said he did not think the Four Sha claim would necessarily lead to more aggressive actions by China, but “it provides another justification for aggressive actions that it might want to take.”

Hayton, meanwhile, saw potential for escalation in the South China Sea as Four Sha concept “has given Chinese actors some new confidence that they can make a plausible case. We've seen a lot more assertive actions recently, like China’s harassing oil and gas off Malaysia and Indonesia,” he said.

In a related development, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reiterated that his country will not use its strength to "bully” its smaller neighbors. He also highlighted the importance of settling disputes in the South China Sea peacefully.

"Stressing only one side's claims and imposing one's own will on the other is not a proper way for neighbours to treat each other and it goes against the oriental philosophy of how people should get along with each other," Wang told a virtual forum organized by the Chinese embassy in the Philippines on Monday.

Muzliza Mustafa of RFA-affiliated BenarNews in Kuala Lumpur contributed to this report.

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Thursday, 13 January 2022

Detailed US government study declares China’s maritime claims unlawful

The Chinese South china Sea claims are by far the largest, covering up to 90 percent of the sea.
2022.01.13

Detailed US government study declares China’s maritime claims unlawful
 RFA

UPDATED at 8:35 A.M. on 2022-01-14

The U.S. State Department has issued its most comprehensive study yet on China’s sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea and concludes that they amount to an unlawful claim to most of the disputed waterway and “gravely undermine the rule of law.”

The 47-page ‘Limits in the Seas’ report, released on Wednesday, also states that China’s claim to “historic rights” over the South China Sea is unlawful – a finding that concurs with the decision of the 2016 international arbitration tribunal in a case brought by the Philippines.

China, which has ignored the tribunal, has been engaged in territorial disputes with five other claimants in the South China Sea. The Chinese claims are by far the largest, covering up to 90 percent of the sea.

“These claims, especially considering their expansive geographic and substantive scope, gravely undermine the rule of law in the oceans and numerous universally recognized provisions of international law reflected in the Convention (on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS),” the State Department report says.

In the report, the U.S. reiterates its call for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to conform its maritime claims to international law and to comply with the decision of the tribunal, as well as “to cease its unlawful and coercive activities in the South China Sea.”

Beijing insists that it holds “historical rights” to most of the South China Sea and has declared the arbitration tribunal’s ruling “null and void.” It also points out that the U.S. is not a signatory of UNCLOS, which China ratified in 1996.

"China sets great store by the Convention and earnestly observes the Convention in a rigid and responsible manner. The U.S. refuses to join the Convention, but styles itself as a judge," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.

"Such political manipulation is irresponsible and undermines international rule of law," he told a news conference in Beijing Thursday.

"Our sovereignty and relevant rights and interests in the South China Sea are established in the long course of history and are in line with the UN Charter, UNCLOS and other international law," added Wang.

The U.S. report, which examines four categories of maritime claims made by China, is one of a series issued by the State Department’s Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs on maritime claims by different countries.

“It’s really well-argued, based on the latest information from Chinese sources,” said Bill Hayton, a well-known South China Sea scholar.

“It doesn’t change the U.S. position in any way but it gives everyone who follows developments in the South China Sea a really good set of data points on which to base their discussions,” he added.

Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands, pictured in an Aug. 20, 2021, satellite image. It is one of the major bases China has built on disputed features in the South China Sea. Credit: Planet Labs.
Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands, pictured in an Aug. 20, 2021, satellite image. It is one of the major bases China has built on disputed features in the South China Sea. Credit: Planet Labs.
‘Historical rights’

The U.S. position has always been that it doesn’t take side in the dispute about which country has sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea.

The new study “examines only the maritime claims asserted by the PRC and does not examine the merits of sovereignty claims to islands in the South China Sea asserted by the PRC or other States.”

However, the findings show that "the overall effect of these maritime claims is that the PRC unlawfully claims sovereignty or some form of exclusive jurisdiction over most of the South China Sea.”

In recent years, China has been developing artificial islands and stepping up military presence to reinforce its sovereignty claims despite concerns and protests from neighboring countries.

The new report builds on a previous U.S. analysis of China’s so-called “nine-dash line” that encircles most of the South China Sea and serves as the basis for the claim to “historical rights” in the sea.

“The idea of 'historic rights' in the South China Sea was invented by Professor Kuen-Chen Fu and other nationalist 'New Party' politicians in Taiwan in the late 1980s and 1990s,” explained Hayton, adding that it was then incorporated into China’s legal framework.

China also claimed that its nine-dash line is a successor to the U-shaped line map issued by the Republic of China government, based in Taiwan, in 1947.

But Taiwan, despite being a claimant, “does not recognize the nine-dash line used by China to claim ‘historical rights’ in the South China Sea,” said Chung-Ting Huang, a research fellow at the Taiwanese Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

“Taiwan and China are not on the same page about the definition of the nine-dash line,” Huang said.

Noting that China has not provided any additional information about the substantive content of this historical rights claim, the “Limits in the Seas” report said the claim is inconsistent with international law and “the international community, including littoral states of the South China Sea, has made clear that it rejects the PRC’s ‘historic rights’ claim.”

Other maritime claims

Besides “historic rights,” three other categories of claims examined in the State Department’s report are sovereignty claims over maritime features; straight baselines; and maritime zones.

Baselines are demarcation lines connecting the outermost points of the features of archipelago that are meant to circumscribe the territory that belongs to it.

China claims sovereignty over more than 100 features in the South China Sea that are submerged by water during high tide.

Beijing has been drawing straight baselines around four groups of scattered islands in order to claim ownership of everything within those baselines.

Analyzing each of those claims using UNCLOS, the report said that China’s “expansive maritime claims are plainly inconsistent with international law.”

“The United States and numerous other states have rejected these claims in favor of the rules-based international maritime order within the South China Sea and worldwide,” it concluded.

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China steps up repression in Tibet and Xinjiang, rights group says

 Torture, mass detention, religious persecution are among the abuses highlighted in new report.

2022.01.13
China steps up repression in Tibet and Xinjiang, rights group saysA guard tower rises along the perimeter fence of an internment camp in China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in a file photo.
Reuters

China in 2021 increased its repression of ethnic minorities in Tibet and the northwestern region of Xinjiang, severely restricting freedom of religion and pursuing coercive assimilationist policies aimed at creating a single national identity, a rights group said Thursday.

State measures taken in Xinjiang especially constituted “crimes against humanity,” with abuses including mass detention and enforced disappearances, New York-based Human Rights Watch said in its World Report for 2022.

Chinese officials also committed torture, mass surveillance, cultural and religious persecution, forced labor and the separation of families, the rights group said, adding that information flows from the region had largely been blocked during the year.

“Authorities maintained tight control over information, [and] access to the region, already blocked, was further constrained due to COVID-19 movement restrictions,” HRW said.

Some Uyghurs detained by police were confirmed to have been imprisoned, however, “including prominent academic Rahile Dawut, though her alleged crime, length of sentence, and location of imprisonment remained unclear.”

“There were also reports of Uyghurs dying in detention, including biotech researcher Mihriay Erkin, 31, businessman Yaqub Haji, 45, and poet and publisher Haji Mirzahid Kerimi, 82,” HRW said.

Chinese authorities in Tibetan areas meanwhile continue to restrict freedom of religion, expression, movement and assembly, the rights group said. “They also fail to address popular concerns about mining and land grabs by local officials, which often involve intimidation and unlawful use of force by security forces.”

Tightened controls over online communications during the year led to a growing number of detentions in 2021. Tibetans caught communicating with people outside China were harshly punished “regardless of the content of their communications.”

Coercive assimilationist policies also continued during the year, with Chinese language classes made compulsory in schools in ethnic minority areas in 2021 and even kindergartens ordered to use Chinese as a medium of instruction, Human Rights Watch said.

“At least eight Tibetan prisoners or suspects were released due to ill health, some due to torture, four of whom died soon after, though the true number is unknown due to extreme information controls in Tibet,” the rights group added.

Freedoms of movement, expression suppressed

Speaking to RFA, Sophie Richardson — China director at Human Rights Watch — said it has become increasingly difficult for the rights group to get reliable information out of Tibetan areas.

“The Chinese government has used the [COVID-19] pandemic to suppress both the freedom of movement and freedom of expression across the country,” she said.

“We have seen repeated lockdowns and seen it become more difficult for journalists, diplomats and independent activists to move across the country and report freely.”

“If the Chinese government has nothing to hide across the Tibetan plateau, then it should be allowing the free flow of information, not the lack of it,” Richardson said.

The Sinicization of Tibetan religion and language is now the Chinese government’s foremost priority in Tibetan areas, said Tenzin Dorjee, a former commissioner of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom.

“Now with the appointment of a U.S. special coordinator for Tibetan issues, we urge the U.S. coordinator and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom to take a stronger position on China’s restrictions of freedom of religion with regard to Tibetan Buddhists inside Tibet,” Dorjee said.

Written in English by Richard Finney, with reporting by Tenzin Dickyi for RFA’s Tibetan Service.

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Monday, 10 January 2022

China destroys second revered Tibetan statue in Sichuan

 Authorities said the statue's housing lacked a fire escape, but Tibetans see a crackdown on their religion.

By Sangyal Kunchok
2022.01.10

In this satellite image slider shows the before and the after the destruction of Drago’s Gaden Namgyal Ling monastery in the Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. The right image of the site was taken on Jan. 1, 2022. Credit: Google Earth and Planet Labs with analysis by RFA

RFA has verified the destruction of a second Buddhist statue revered by Tibetans since late last month in western China’s Sichuan province, part of an campaign the ethnic minority says is targeting its religion and traditions.

RFA has analyzed commercial satellite imagery to verify the destruction of a three-story statue of Maitreya Buddha at Gaden Namyal Ling monastery in Drago (in Chinese, Luhuo) county in the Kardze (Ganzi) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture.

The confirmation of the removal of the statue of Maitreya, believed by Tibetan Buddhists to be a Buddha appearing in a future age, follows RFA's verification last week of the destruction of a 99-foot tall statue 900 meters (2,700 feet) away.

Chinese authorities forced monks from local monasteries and Tibetans living in nearby towns to witness the demolition of the statue and were 45 traditional prayer wheels, which began on Dec. 12 and continued for the next nine days, Tibetan sources in exile said, citing contacts in the area.

The three-story statue and the structure housing it were both torn down around the same time as the 99-foot Buddha, which authorities said was too tall, a Tibetan living in exile told RFA, citing contacts in Drago.

“Chinese authorities have again given unbelievable reasons for the destruction, saying there was no fire escape in the temple housing the three-story high statue of Maitreya Buddha, but these aren’t valid excuses,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity to protect his sources in Drago.

“The Chinese government is just continuing to Sinicize Tibet’s religion by not allowing Tibetans the freedom to practice their own religion and faith,” the source said.

Satellite photo: Planet Labs with RFA analysis
Satellite photo: Planet Labs with RFA analysis

Drago county chief Wang Dongsheng had been present at the statue’s destruction and witnessed the brutal police beating of local Tibetans objecting to the demolition, he added, citing local sources.

Wang had also directed the destruction in December of a 99-foot Buddha statue in Drago and had earlier overseen a campaign of destruction of Sichuan’s sprawling Larung Gar Buddhist Academy in a move that saw thousands of monks and nuns expelled and homes destroyed, sources told RFA in an earlier report.

“The brutal attacks on Tibetans still continue in Drago, and sources in Tibet say they have seen Wang Dongsheng taking part in these activities,” a second source in exile told RFA, also asking for anonymity to protect his sources in the region.

Tenzin Lekshey, a spokesperson for Tibet’s Dharamsala, India-based exile government, the Central Tibetan Administration, told RFA that China’s continuing encroachment on Tibetans’ religious freedom will further complicate the troubling issue of China’s rule in Tibetan areas.

“This forceful behavior by the Chinese government in Drago clearly shows the government’s mistreatment of Tibetans and their religion, and the Central Tibetan Administration is very concerned about what is happening in Drago,” he said.

Translated by Tenzin Dickyi for RFA’s Tibetan Service. Written in English by Richard Finney.

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Tibetan monks beaten, arrested for sharing Buddha statue destruction news


Tuesday, 4 January 2022

Australian scholar says fear of South China Sea conflict is exaggerated

Australian scholar John Quiggin says fears of superpower conflict over Taiwan are also overblown.

2022.01.04

Australian scholar says fear of South China Sea conflict is exaggeratedAn F/A-18F Super Hornet lands on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson Nov. 20, 2021 during a deployment in the South China Sea.
 U.S. Navy photo

Increased military exercises and sharp rhetoric have fueled fears of a superpower conflict in the disputed South China Sea, but at least one scholar is making waves with a different narrative -- that the fears of war are overblown.

John Quiggin, professor of economics at the University of Queensland, Australia, argues that an inflated evaluation of the strategic importance of the disputed waterway may be stoking tensions. He says that those tensions are impeding diplomacy and collaboration on more critical international concerns like climate change.

He made his case in a recent article published by the Lowy Institute, an independent think tank in Australia, highlighting what he described as “five myths about the South China Sea.”

The “myths” are: The South China Sea is a vital shipping route, potentially threatened by China; the South China Sea is home to immensely valuable resources; China has the military and naval capacity to invade Taiwan; it is crucially important to maintain freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea; and China is willing to fight a nuclear war to defend its claims in the South China Sea.

Speaking to RFA from Brisbane, Quiggin said that globally the most prevalent myth about the South China Sea is that “it is a vital shipping lane and China might, in some ways, disrupt it.”

“The whole idea of South China Sea as a vital shipping lane is economically nonsensical,” he said, adding: “It’s certainly convenient to have the fastest and cheapest route but there’s always a long way around.”

It’s commonly believed that up to a third of the world trade is shipped through the South China Sea each year, worth between $3 trillion and $5 trillion. The Straits of Malacca are the shortest and cheapest route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

But there are other alternatives and the economic cost of disruption would just be “a small amount,” said Quiggin, drawing a parallel with the Suez Canal’s closure in mid-20th century due to Arab-Israeli wars.

Similarly, the professor played down the importance of the oil and gas reserves in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, saying the quantities are “smaller than they seem.”

In his opinion, it is unlikely that substantial volumes of oil and gas will ever be extracted as we approach the end of the carbon fuels era and “these resources are of more value as diplomatic bargaining chips” rather than commodities.

The article provoked interest, but also disagreement, among South China Sea experts and researchers.

They included Greg Poling, a maritime expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington D.C. He disagreed with the premise that the most likely casus belli, or act that provokes war, between the United States and China would be an attempt by China to take control of shipping routes and disputed territory in the South China Sea.

“The shipping importance and resource disputes are indeed overstated, but neither are the fundamental concern,” Poling told RFA in an e-mail.

“The most likely casus belli is a use of force by China against either U.S. or allied vessels/personnel during operations by the latter to exercise their rights,” he added.

Western nations, including the U.S., have stepped up military drills in the South China Sea in the past year. Those nations have become more critical of China’s sweeping sovereignty claims amid concerns that Beijing’s stance poses a threat to freedom of navigation.
















‘Myth about Taiwan’

Quiggin further dismissed fears about what is widely viewed as the most serious flashpoint for conflict in the region – Taiwan.

He called the claim that Beijing plans to invade Taiwan soon a “laughable idea” and “a seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be massively more difficult than the D-Day landings” as China simply doesn’t have enough capacity including landing craft. D-Day refers to the Allied seaborne landings in Normandy, France, in World War II.

Quiggin said “while everyone who seriously looks into the prospect recognizes it, no-one wants to admit it.”

“Taiwan doesn’t want to say that ‘we’re safe, we don’t need any help’. China certainly is not going admit that they can’t invade Taiwan. So it suits everybody to go home with this myth,” Quiggin said.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and vows to unite it with the mainland, by force if necessary. Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait has intensified in recent months, with hundreds of military aircraft sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in what observers see as an intimidation campaign.

The Australian scholar was also critical of what he called “the U.S. doctrine of Freedom of Navigation Operations” for naval ships in the South China Sea, saying it was more symbolic than substantive.”

“It’s again the U.S. unwilling to concede a point which is essentially symbolic, because when you look at the balance of forces, it will be very difficult to sustain the freedom of navigation if China really decided to take military action against it,” he said.

“There are serious sources of conflict between China and the democratic world in important areas like climate change, where co-operation is urgently needed. Focusing on secondary and symbolic issues like disputes over South China Sea reduces the prospect for resolving more important conflicts,” Quiggin concluded.

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