Arise! China: AP

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Friday, 28 April 2023

Analysis: China's Ukraine plan mixes peace, self-interest

Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end the 14-month-old war.

Story by By JOE McDONALD, Associated Press • Yesterday 19:39

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech after receiving the credentials of 70 ambassadors to China held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on April 24, 2023. Chinese leader Xi Jinping's plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force, but Xi faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end the 14-month-old war. (Yin Bogu/Xinhua via AP)© Provided by The Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end the 14-month-old war.

The biggest: Neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready to stop fighting.

Xi’s plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force. His announcement Wednesday in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prompted optimism Beijing might use its warm relations with Russia's Vladimir Putin to push for peace. That was followed by skeptical questions about whether Beijing is more focused on ending an invasion it refuses to criticize, or serving its own interests.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping as they attend an official welcome ceremony at The Grand Kremlin Palace, in Moscow, Russia, March 21, 2023. Chinese leader Xi Jinping's plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force, but Xi faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end the 14-month-old war.(Sergei Karpukhin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press

China's starting point is a peace proposal issued in February that called for a ceasefire, negotiations and an end to sanctions against Russia. It offered few details, but repeated Russian accusations that Western governments were to blame for the invasion.

China has good reasons to want to see the war ended. It jolted the Chinese economy by pushing up oil, wheat and other commodity prices. Beijing also warned Wednesday about the dangers of nuclear war, after Russia announced earlier it would move atomic weapons into neighboring Belarus.

FILE - In this file photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, left, hold hands with his Saudi Arabian counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, right, and Chineses counterpart Qin Gang in Beijing Thursday, April 6, 2023. In March, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the end of a 7-year diplomatic split following Chinese-organized talks. (Ding Lin/Xinhua via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press

“China’s self-interest happens to align with ending the war,” said John Delury, an international relations specialist at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“Beijing has no interest in seeing Russia humiliated, nor is it in China’s interest for Russia to be triumphant,” Delury said. “The best option is a cease-fire and, with it, economic opportunities to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.”

Wednesday’s statement gave no indication how China might recommend addressing the questions the two countries are fighting over, including Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula seized by Moscow from Ukraine in 2014.

PLAYING PEACEMAKER HELPS BEIJING IN EUROPE

By playing peacemaker, Beijing might also be looking to separate European allies from the United States, which Xi accuses of trying to block China's economic and political rise.

Beijing is trying to repair relations with Europe after an uproar over a Chinese ambassador’s comment that former Soviet republics might not be sovereign countries. That group includes Ukraine, and European Union members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron have visited Beijing and appealed for help with Ukraine, highlighting the challenges faced by Washington in holding together allies to oppose China’s assertive policies abroad.

“Trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and European partners is an important goal,” said Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “For that, China needs to pretend that it’s an active force for peace.”

Xi's call with Zelenskyy might sustain European hopes that China can be persuaded to "wield its influence to help end the war" but is “unlikely to change the Western assessment of Beijing’s stance as one of ‘pro-Russian neutrality,'” said Eurasia Group analysts in a report.

XI SHOWS HE DOESN'T ALWAYS SUPPORT PUTIN

The announcement gives Beijing a chance to show it doesn't always agree with Moscow, though the differences might be too subtle for Western critics. They complain China helps Putin resist Western sanctions by purchasing Russian oil and gas and provides political support.

Xi’s government sees the Kremlin as a partner in opposing U.S. domination of global affairs. China has used its status as one of five permanent U.N. Security Council members to block efforts to censure Russia.

Xi and Putin said in a joint statement before the February 2022 invasion their governments had a “no limits friendship.” Their navies held joint exercises with Iran in March.

Despite that, the Chinese government says they have a “non-alliance” relationship. Beijing has promised not to supply armaments to either side in the Ukraine war.

“China has never taken one side,” said Da Wei, an international relations specialist at Tsinghua University in Beijing and director of its Center for Strategic and Security Studies.

“Which Western leader has maintained communication with leaders of both parties directly involved in the crisis?” said Da. “I think this call is an indication of China’s fair and impartial objective in promoting peace talks."

A Chinese statement Wednesday also cited “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity” as a foundation of relations with Ukraine.

While Russia is trying to move borders by annexing portions of Ukraine, Beijing is intensely sensitive about respecting territorial sovereignty. It says borders must be respected and no country has a right to meddle in another’s affairs.

BEIJING'S EFFORT TO RAISE GLOBAL PROFILE

Positioning itself as a mediator also helps Beijing as it pursues a bigger role in managing global affairs as part of efforts to restore China to what the Communist Party sees as its rightful place as a political, economic and cultural leader.

Beijing should “actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system” and promote “global security initiatives,” Xi said in March. A proposal for a “Global Security Initiative” issued in February said China is “ready to conduct bilateral and multilateral security cooperation with all countries.”

Also in March, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the end of a 7-year diplomatic split following Chinese-organized talks. This year, Xi’s government has also offered to mediate Israeli-Palestinian talks, set up a new Middle East security structure, and help African countries resolve disputes.

If Beijing can organize peace talks, “that backs up Xi Jinping’s ambitions to being a global power,” said Delury.

China's diplomatic ambition is a reversal from decades of staying out of other countries’ disputes and most international affairs to focus on economic development.

Its peacemaking initiatives are also at odds with confrontational Chinese behavior toward its neighbors in territorial disputes and threats to attack Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy claimed by Beijing as part of its territory.

DIM HOPES FOR PEACE TALKS

Zelenskyy’s government said in a statement his conversation with Xi might lead toward “possible interaction with the aim of establishing a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine.” Zelenskyy said March 29 he had invited Xi to visit, but neither government has indicated whether that might happen.

Despite that, political analysts see little chance for progress. Ukraine is believed to be preparing a new offensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory.

A resolution is "maybe years, even decades, away, because the Russian and Ukrainian positions are still miles apart," said Gabuev.

Shi Yinhong, an international relations specialist at Renmin University in Beijing, noted Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said peace talks are “almost impossible," while Zelenskyy stressed to Xi the importance of recovering all captured territory.

“Neither side in the war materially echoed China’s initiative, which fell far short of what they were striving for,” said Shi.

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Joe McDonald has reported from China for The Associated Press since 1997.

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AP researcher Wanqing Chen in Beijing and AP Writer Andrew Katell contributed.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/analysis-china-s-ukraine-plan-mixes-peace-self-interest/ar-AA1aqaGb

Sunday, 22 January 2023

China’s bet on homegrown mRNA vaccines holds back nation

China is trying to navigate its biggest coronavirus outbreak without a tool it could have adopted many months ago, the kind of vaccines that have proven to offer the best protection against the worst outcomes from COVID-19.

By HUIZHONG WU and ANIRUDDHA GHOSALMay 25, 2022

China's first SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine AWcorna, developed by Abogen Biosciences, Walvax Biotechnology, and the Academy of Military Medical Sciences' Institute of Biotechnology, is displayed at the National 13th Five-Year Scientific and Technological Innovation Achievement Exhibition in Beijing, China on Oct. 27, 2021. More than two years into the pandemic, China has not approved the more effective mRNA vaccines, instead choosing to pursue its own route on COVID-19 vaccines. (Chinatopix via AP)

As early as the spring of 2020 a Chinese pharmaceutical company, Fosun Pharma, reached an agreement to distribute — and eventually manufacture — the mRNA vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech. It still has not been cleared in mainland China, despite being authorized for use by separate authorities in Hong Kong and Macao.

Now health experts say that delay — a result of putting politics and national pride above public health — could lead to avoidable coronavirus deaths and deeper economic losses because whole cities would be locked down to insulate the country’s unprotected population.

“The biggest issue is about the delay of the reopening,” said Xi Chen, a health economist at Yale University’s School of Public Health. “The consequences will be huge, the supply chain disruption, the disruption to all kinds of service sectors.”

Studies have consistently shown that vaccination with mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna offer the best protection against hospitalization and death from COVID-19. Chinese vaccines made with older technology proved fairly effective against the original strain of the virus, but much less so against more recent variants.

As this evidence became clearer, even countries that initially used Chinese vaccines and some other less effective Western-made vaccines have turned to mRNA vaccines for booster shots and new vaccinations.

Not China. Regulators have not publicly said why they have not acted — the mRNA vaccines are authorized in much of the world and have proven safe and effective in hundreds of millions of people. But a Chinese health official and another person directly involved in the negotiations told The Associated Press that authorities have held back because they want to master the technology in China and not depend on foreign suppliers. Both spoke on condition of anonymity, given the sensitive nature of the issue.

For more than a year, the approach seemed defensible. The country was able to keep the virus at bay better than any other large nation with its strict “zero COVID” approach that isolates infected people and locks down communities when infections pop up.

But now, the highly transmissible omicron variant is testing that strategy, requiring ever wider and longer lockdowns that are taking a greater economic and human toll. While other countries are able to operate close to normal because their people are protected by vaccination or previous infection, China is left with only its lockdown strategy to avoid huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.

China may be changing its mind. The Communist Party-owned Global Times newspaper reported last month that Fosun Pharma is still working with health authorities on its approval and Shanghai authorities recently issued new policies that could allow the import of COVID-19 vaccines. Fosun, based in Shanghai, did not respond to questions about the announcement.

China’s National Health Commission directed questions to the country’s drug regulator, the National Medical Products Administration. That agency did not respond to a faxed request for comment.

In the meantime, hopes for a Chinese-developed mRNA vaccine center on Abogen Biosciences, a startup founded in 2019 by Bo Ying, an American-trained scientist who once worked for Moderna.

The company has partnered with more established companies in the country such as Walvax, a private company founded in 2001, and the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, the military’s medical research facility. Abogen has raised more than $1.7 billion since 2020.

The company’s vaccine candidate succeeded in eliciting an immune response in a small, preliminary test in humans designed to evaluate safety, according to a study published in the journal Lancet Microbe.

The results were “promising,” said Dr. Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research in Pune, India, although she said that a direct comparison of the immune response the shot triggered with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines would have helped scientists better evaluate its performance.

But large studies that are needed to show whether the shot works to prevent infections or symptoms have not been completed. Abogen did not respond to requests for an interview.

Even if the studies can be completed and the vaccine proves effective, manufacturing the millions of doses required will be a challenge, experts say. Abogen built a manufacturing facility in December 2020 with a projected capacity of up to 120 million doses a year.

Manufacturing that vaccine and ensuring quality at scale will be a difficult hurdle to clear because mRNA is still a new technology, said Scott Wheelwright, chief operating officer at BioInno Bioscience, a Chinese biopharmaceutical contract manufacturer who has held conversations with Abogen.

In the meantime, Chen, the Yale health policy expert, said the Chinese government should better protect its elderly population by both approving the Pfizer vaccine and encouraging booster shots.

Using a Chinese phrase that means “giving up completely,” Chen said the change from “zero COVID” does not have to be all or nothing. “It doesn’t have to be tang ping or sticking to zero COVID,” Chen said. “I don’t think there are only two solutions, and we can stick to a middle ground.”

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Ghosal reported from New Delhi. Associated Press journalist Dake Kang in Beijing contributed to this report.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-technology-health-00e7e5ebf9460bad115b491009b58bef

Sunday, 24 July 2022

China more aggressive, dangerous to U.S., allies: Gen. Milley

"The Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region," he said.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS

07/24/2022 06:56 AM EDT

Gen. Mark Milley walks with Indonesian Gen. Andika Perkasa at Indonesian military headquarters in Jakarta on July 24, 2022. | AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim

JAKARTA, Indonesia — The Chinese military has become significantly more aggressive and dangerous over the past five years, the top U.S. military officer said during a trip to the Indo-Pacific that included a stop Sunday in Indonesia.

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the number of intercepts by Chinese aircraft and ships in the Pacific region with U.S. and other partner forces has increased significantly over that time, and the number of unsafe interactions has risen by similar proportions.

“The message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region,” said Milley, who recently asked his staff to compile details about interactions between China and the U.S. and others in the region.

His comments came as the U.S. redoubles its efforts to strengthen its relationships with Pacific nations as a counterbalance to China, which is trying to expand its presence and influence in the region. The Biden administration considers China its “pacing threat” and America’s primary long-term security challenge.

Milley’s trip to the region is sharply focused on the China threat. He will attend a meeting of Indo-Pacific chiefs of defense this week in Sydney, Australia, where key topics will be China’s escalating military growth and the need to maintain a free, open and peaceful Pacific.

U.S. military officials have also raised alarms about the possibility that China could invade Taiwan, the democratic, self-ruled island that Beijing views as a breakaway province. China has stepped up its military provocations against Taiwan as it looks to intimidate it into unifying with the communist mainland.

U.S. military officials have said Beijing wants to be ready to make a move on the island by 2027. The U.S. remains Taiwan’s chief ally and supplier of defense weapons. U.S. law requires the government to treat all threats to the island as matters of “grave concern,” but remains ambiguous on whether the U.S. military would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China.

China’s top military officer, Gen. Li Zuocheng told Milley in a July 7 call that Beijing had “no room for compromise” on issues such as Taiwan. He said he told Milley that the U.S. must “cease U.S.-Taiwan military collusion and avoid impacting China-U.S. ties and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

The U.S. and others are also worried that a recent security agreement that Beijing signed in April with the Solomon Islands could lead to the establishment of a Chinese naval base in the South Pacific. The U.S. and Australia have told the Solomon Islands that hosting a Chinese military base would not be tolerated.

“This is an area in which China is trying to do outreach for their own purposes. And again, this is concerning because China is not doing it just for benign reasons,” Milley told reporters traveling with him. “They’re trying to expand their influence throughout the region. And that has potential consequences that are not necessarily favorable to our allies and partners in the region.”

Milley’s visit to Indonesia is the first by a U.S. joint chiefs chairman since Adm. Mike Mullen in 2008. But U.S. leaders have crisscrossed the Asia-Pacific in recent months, including high-profile visits by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The Biden administration has been taking steps to expand its military and security relationship with Indo-Pacific nations as part of a campaign to build a stronger network of alliances in China’s backyard and counter China’s growing influence.

Milley declined to provide specific numbers of unsafe Chinese interactions with U.S. and allied aircraft and ships. But Austin, in a speech in Singapore last month, referred to an “alarming increase” in the number of unsafe intercepts by People’s Liberation Army aircraft and vessels.

Austin specifically pointed to a February incident where a PLA navy ship directed a laser at an Australian P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. But there have been a number of others. A surveillance aircraft controlled by Canada was recently intercepted by a Chinese fighter in international airspace. And U.S. ships are routinely dogged by Chinese aircraft and vessels during transits, particularly around manmade islands claimed by Beijing in the South China Sea.

Milley said there have been Chinese intercepts with Japan, Canada, Australia, Philippines and Vietnam. They all, he said, have seen a “statistically significant” increase in intercepts, and the number of unsafe incidents has increased by an “equal proportion.”

Milley, who will meet with Gen. Andika Perkasa, chief of the Indonesian National Defence Forces, said Pacific nations like Indonesia want the U.S. military involved and engaged in the region.

“We want to work with them to develop interoperability and modernize our militaries collectively,” Milley said, in order to ensure they can “meet whatever challenge that China poses.”

He said Indonesia is strategically critical to the region, and has long been a key U.S. partner.

Earlier this year, the U.S approved a $13.9 billion sale of advanced fighter jets to Indonesia. And in Jakarta last December, Blinken signed agreements for enhanced joint naval exercises between the U.S. and Indonesia.

China has condemned U.S. efforts to expand its outreach in the region, accusing America of trying to build an “Asian NATO.” During a speech in Singapore, Austin rejected that claim. “We do not seek a new Cold War, an Asian NATO or a region split into hostile blocs,” he said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/24/milley-china-danger-indonesia-00047578